What's the Scoop with the Shadow Inventory?

I was asked this morning what I think about what is going on with the “shadow inventory” (the homes that lenders have foreclosed on but have not yet gone on the market). Lenders are continuing to foreclose on homes at almost record rates, yet the number of Bank Owned (REO) listings entering the market does not reflect that.


According to the Wall Street Journal in April this year : "As of March, banks had an inventory of about 1.1 million foreclosed homes, up 20% from a year earlier, according to estimates from LPS Applied Analytics. Another 4.8 million mortgage holders were at least 60 days behind on their payments or in the foreclosure process, meaning their homes were well on their way to the inventory pile. That “shadow inventory” was up 30% from a year earlier."
http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2010/04/24/number-of-the-week-103-months-to-clear-housing-inventory/


My best guess is that a) Lenders are hanging on to properties so as not to flood the market, lowering the average sales prices and thereby lowering the value of their inventory and/or b) Lenders are simply overwhelmed by the volume and don’t have their systems & staffing up to speed to deal with it. Yet.


In the Denver area recently, REO (Bank Owned) listings that are in fair to good condition go under contract within 30 days (often faster) and sell for asking price or above asking price.


So… we wait and see what happens next.

Lillian Lively http://llively.yourcastle.org/ Lil@TopProducer.com

Denver Real Estate Trends- Tidbits

As an agent at Your Castle Real Estate I get the most amazing and useful information on real estate trends in the Denver area. One of the big reasons I joined Your Castle was because of the detailed attention to current market conditions. I am not disappointed.

In a class and discussion on 9/1/09 the latest tidbits of interest are:

Denver SW and Aurora North: after all time high prices in 2005 & 2006 and then plummeting prices in 2007 & 2008 prices in those 2 areas we are seeing a rebound in prices. They have now been stable for a year. By 2008 both areas had prices drop to half their ‘05& ‘06 highs. Many of the foreclosed properties were purchased by investors who have now rehabilitated them and are reselling them.

Small homes vs large homes: the average sale price is down most for larger homes. Homes 1150 square feet and smaller are seeing price increases. We are clearly past the bottom on smaller homes. The larger homes, 2875 square feet and up are still seeing prices drop; down 14% in May-Aug 2009 from May-Aug 2008.

Bank owned listings low: Current number of bank owned (REO) sales are about half of what they were a year ago, at their peak. Short Sales are increasing as REO’s decline. Foreclosure notices continue to increase.

Inventory: In the past 12 months 25% of all area sales were in the $135,000 or less range. The buyer competition is fierce in this price range, it’s a seller’s market. Only 8% of the currently active listings are in this price range.

Lil Lively - Your Voice in Real Estate
303-746-8827